The European ParliamentThe 'Turkish Problem'

Introduction / History

Historically, the European project has been about expansion. It has happened 5 times in the fifty years since the signing of the Treaty of Rome, which founded the EEC, the forerunner of the EU, with just 6 Member Sates. Now that there are 27, and this is not by any means the end of the process.

Proponent governments have been enthusiastic advocates of this process of enlargement, pushing for a vision of Europe as a coherent union of culturally diverse states, with that diversity celebrated as a source of strength. Such has been the case of Turkey.

Turkey is a secular state with a majority Muslim populations. In an age where reactionary elements talk up some inevitable conflict between Islamic and Western values, the accession of Turkey to full European membership would be a significant counter-example, and a force for peace in the world.

This will be an extended negotiation. But the process will help ensure that Turkey gets closer to EU standards in many areas. Turkey accession would also confirm once and for all the EU’s ability (and ambition) to accommodate richly diverse cultures, united around a set of critical core values.

In order to accede to the EU, Turkey must first successfully complete negotiations with the European Commission on each of the 35 chapters of the EU's acquis and then the member states must unanimously agree to Turkish membership. Public opinion in EU countries generally opposes Turkish membership, though with varying degrees of intensity, although political leaders and politicians of the European Union generally support it. Some countries, notably France and Austria, have discussed putting the decision to a referendum.

The status of Turkey with regard to the EU has become a matter of major significance and considerable controversy in recent years. Turkey is one of the founding members of the Council of Europe since 1949 and has been an associate member of the European Union and its predecessors since 1964 following the signing of the EEC-Turkey Association Agreement (Ankara Agreement) in 1963. The country formally applied for full membership on 14 April 1987, but 12 years passed before it was recognised as a candidate country at the Helsinki Summit in 1999. After a summit in Brussels on 17 December 2004 (after the large 2004 enlargement), the European Council announced that membership negotiations with Turkey were officially opened on 3 October 2005. The screening process which began on 20 October 2005 was completed on 18 October 2006.

Throughout Europe, the arguments that surround Turkey's projected accession revolve around a series of issues, ranging from demographic through geographic to political.

Proponents of Turkey's membership argue that it's a key regional power with a large economy and the second largest military force of NATO that will enhance the EU's position as a global geostrategic player; given Turkey's geographic location and economic, political, cultural and historic ties in regions with large natural resources that are at the immediate vicinity of the EU's geopolitical sphere of influence; such as the East Mediterranean and Black Sea coasts, the Middle East, the Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia. According toCarl Bidtl, Swedish foreign Minister, "The accession of Turkey would give the EU a decisive role for stability in the eastern part of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, which is clearly in the strategic interest of Europe."

Population and consequent power

Opponents argue that if and when it were to join the EU, Turkey would become the EU's most populated member state. Turkey's current population is 71 million, and demographers project it to increase to 80-85 million in the next 20 years. This compares with the largest current EU member state Germany, which has 83 million people today, but whose population is projected to decrease to around 80 million by 2020. It is feared that Turkey's large population would alter the balance of power in the representative European institutions. Demographic projections indicate that Turkey would surpass Germany in the number of seats by 2020.

Geographic borders

Another argument is rooted in the age-old debate on whether it is possible to establish geographic borders for Europe, and whether Turkey 'fits' within these borders. This is seen by many as a dispute that rests on philosophical and intellectual prejudgements, especially since the Treaty of Rome is widely accepted to aim for the construction of a union of European states based on shared common values. [However, even though the bigger part of Turkey is situated in Asia can be verified with a simple glance at the map. But this is only a formal argument. In fact Turkey has been an important geopolitical player on the European chessboard for more than six centuries. - Cicero]

Economy

Another argument concerns Turkey’s supposed declining economy. The economic logic of enlargement reflects the proven mutual benefits of structural investment by wealthy nations in less developed or struggling nations; the resulting increase in the prosperity of the target states creates new markets with new buying power, increasing the prosperity of all. The entrenchment of democracy, economic stability and the rule of law in every part of Europe will lift the prosperity of every part of Europe. (Europe archive). [Turkey, of course, is relatively poor. In 2002 its GDP per capita was 2600 US dollars, which was only 53 percent of Poland, one of the poorest new member states. Turkish EU membership, however, will certainly boost its economic development, as has been the case in other poor acceding countries, such as Portugal, Spain and Ireland (Ireland has now the third highest GDP per capita in the EU!). The argument that Turkish membership will lead to a massive influx of migrants is often used in connection with the last one. A poor country, so goes the argument, will export its population. One may, however, expect that the push and pull factors that determine migratory flows will diminish with economic development. People prefer to stay in their country, and even in their region, if they can earn there a decent living. This is not different for Turks.]

Liberal democracy

Turkey needs to make further progress in the area of freedom of speech. More specifically the EU would like to see a reform of Turkey's penal code and the controversial article 301, which serves as a basis for the so-called "Turkishness-cases" against writers and journalists. The EU member states' concerns over Turkey's human rights record as well as global and regional security-related issues have also been key factors behind Turkey's prolonged application process. One of the Copenhagen criteria in order to accede to the EU, is that a prospective member state is required to uphold democratic values. Turkey is, indeed, not yet a fully fledged democracy. But in a recent past this was also the case for present EU member states as Spain, Portugal, and Greece. And it was equally the case for the eight (out of ten) new member states with a communist past. Together with the GDR, which was absorbed by the Federal Republic, that makes 12 out of 25 member states that had problems with their democratic credentials. This is, of course, not a reason to take this argument not seriously: Turkey still has to implement many of its new laws and - especially - has to bring once and for all the military under civilian, political control. The prospect of EU membership will be a strong incentive to strengthen democracy and to make the necessary changes. (Cicero)

Cultural and religious differences

Perhaps the most sensitive of all arguments centre on the cultural and religious differences. Since the EU identifies itself as a cultural and religious mosaic that recognises and respects diversity, the supporters of Turkey's EU bid believe that, as long as both Turkey and the EU member states maintain this common vision, cultural and religious differences should be irrelevant. [Turkey is, of course, an Islamic country. So are Albania and Bosnia that are on the list to join the EU. Turkish Islam is not only known to be moderate and tolerant (when the Jews were expelled from Spain in 1492 they went to Amsterdam and… Constantinople), but since Atatürk's reforms it is also banned from the public sphere. Turkey is, as France, and maybe even more than Germany (where the state still collects the Kirchensteuer - the church tax), a secular state. It is telling that the 'Islamic' party in power is one of the most modernising and pro-European parties in recent Turkish history. Cicero]

Occupation of Cyprus

The future of the divided island of Cyprus has also been a major sticking point. The Council's December 2004 decision entailed a compromise formula on the Cyprus issue, under which the affected sides were expected to work towards a solution to the conflict before the scheduled 3 October 2005 launch of membership talks with Ankara, however conflict still remains unresolved. Cyprus is a decisive factor in the negotiation process. Cyprus demands official recognition by Turkey and access to Turkish harbours and airports. Turkey demands putting and end to the socalled "isolation" of Northern Cyprus and emphasises that it was the Greek side of the island that rejected the UN’s plan in 2004.

The results of the referenda on the EU constitution during the first half of 2005 - especially the No votes in France and the Netherlands - have been detrimental to Turkey's EU bid. Although subsequent research and surveys have failed to prove that enlargement in general, and Turkey's candidancy in particular, were key factors behind the public's rejection of the Constitution, the summer of 2005 still witnessed an increase Europe-wide of scepticism towards Turkey's European prospects.

Political Union versus Free trade zone

Finally, the argument that Turkish membership will hinder further integration and will fundamentally change the EU from a political project into a simple free trade zone. The ‘political union versus free trade zone’ argument raises an important point: In order to achieve a political union, one needs a considerable number of common values. The EU already faces enormous obstacles brought about by lack of common language, differences in historical experiences and differences in the cultures between the existing EU Members. There are disparate standards of living, levels of corruption, and the strength of civil society among the EU Members. The addition of Turkey as a Member would make the differences even greater and the number of issues on which a consensus can be formed would be reduced (parapundit.com). There is, however, no reason to believe that such a development will take place. Until now every enlargement has led to a deepening of integration. This not because of some automatic functionalist spillover, but for the simple reason that the system otherwise would not work. It is not clear why this would change with the entrance of Turkey.

Europeanness

A fear that transcends all others in Europe is called ‘Eurabia’. This conjures a nightmare of militant Islam overshadowing a Judeo-Christian Europe.

The real question that has to be asked is if there are not some hidden reasons for the UMP (French leading party) and the CDV/CSU (Austrian) to oppose Turkish Membership. Turkey may, indeed, be too big: not for being integrated, but as a potential power factor.

Bibliography:

Cini, M. (2007) European Union Politics, 2nd ed. New York: Oxford University Press.

Gowland, D.,Dunpphy, R and Lythe, C., (2008) (3^rd ed).The European Mosaic (Harlow, Essex: Pearson)

Kennedy, P. (1987) The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Random House)

Magnette, P. (2005) What is the European Union? Nature and Prospects (Basingstoke, Hants: Palgrave Macmillan)

Muftuler-Bac, M (2008) ‘Turkey’s Accession to the European Union: The Impact of the EU’s Internal dynamics’, International Studies Perspectives, 9(2) pp 201 - 219.

Robins, P. (2003) ‘Confusion at Home, Confusion Abroad: Turkey between Copenhagen and Iraq’ International Affairs, 79(3) pp 547 - 566.

Togan, S. (2004) ‘Turkey: Toward EU Accession’ The World Economy, 27(7) pp 1013 - 1045.

Yesilada, B., Efird, B., Noordijk, P. (2006) ‘Competition among giants: A Look at How Future Enlargement of the European Union Could Affect Global Power Transition, International Studies Review, 8(4) pp 607 - 622.