The debate on Enlargement of the European Union is one which has lead scholars and theorists in recent years to contemplate the possible disintegration due to its ever increasing size.

Introduction

Why is there the debate? The argument is that when the EU gets too large there will be a loss of control to the central institutions and therefore a lack of coherence. This will eventually lead to a breakdown in the system which has been established and to the disintegration of the EU.

Recent activity - Turkey’s entrance has threatened to divide the Union as it has created a rift between those who say that Turkey is a part of Europe and those who say that its culture, religion and its geographical location make it a part of the Middle East. If the European Union continues to expand, there may no longer be a defined boundary between Europe and the Middle East.

About Enlargement

There are currently 27 member states which stem from the original 6; Belgium, France, East Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Luxemburg. After the original 6 joined together in 1951 to form the European Coal and Steel Community there was an expansion in 1973 of a further 4 states (UK, Denmark, Ireland and Norway) before Greece joined in 1981. In 1986 2 further states joined (Spain and Portugal) and 1990 saw a re-unified Germany join. 1985 saw the only occasion a country has opted to leave the union when Greenland voted to leave after gaining home rule. The Community was united as the European Union in 1993 (Maastricht Treaty) and in 1995 3 more states joined (Austria, Sweden and Finland). The largest ever enlargement occurred in 2004 when 10 states joined (Malta, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Latvia, Hungry, Poland, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Estonia.) Finally in 2007, Romania and Bulgaria signed up taking the total number of member states to the current 27.

The process of enlargement maintains that the Copenhagen Criteria^[1] must be upheld by any member state applying to join. In summary these are: -

1. stable institutions that guarantee democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;

2. a functioning market economy, as well as the ability to cope with the pressure of competition and the market forces at work inside the Union;

3. the ability to assume the obligations of membership, in particular adherence to the objectives of political, economic and monetary union.^[2]

Prior to a country applying for membership, it files an ‘association agreement’ whereby it agrees to achieve the qualifications needed to apply to be a member. It can take years for these criteria to be fulfilled (as is the case for the applicant countries Croatia and the Former Republic of Yugoslavia)

About Disintegration

Scholars have compared the possible collapse of the European Union to that of the Soviet Union in 1988, claiming that the surprise then would match that of the world today.

In mid-September 2008 one Scholar highlighted the process of disintegration by saying “It immediately appears that European disintegration is not the same as the process of European integration reversed, because political actors do not necessarily direct their loyalties, expectations and political activities back to the national states but could shift these instead to (trans-national) regional authorities. Thus, disintegration is not necessarily a choice between states or Europe. This territorial trap should be avoided; a definition and theory of European (dis)integration should therefore include (the process towards) multi-layered, multifaceted political constructions.”^[3] Another point made is that the increase in multiculturalism within the EU can leave its citizens feeling alienated towards their own state. This alienation then feeds into their longing for a return to this ‘norm’ and therefore a focus away from the Union as a whole.

Some scholars such as Jean-Marie Guéhenno, Ole Wæver, Judy Batt, and Jan Zielonka have found themselves comparing the EU to that of an Empire owing to its major central power and the smaller, minor powers emanating from it. Unlike a federal Government this imperial analogy focuses on the power balance rather than the physical boundaries of the territory. The problem with the Empire resemblance is that there can be “Imperial Overstretch”^[4] whereby an empire overstretchs itself and is unable to keep economic and political control of its territory.

Arguments For Disintegration

Disintegration of the European Union may occur for several reasons:-

• Loss of sovereignty
• Member states being able to use the opt out clauses
• Lack of control
• Federalist tendencies
• Reversion to communist ideologies

The main reason that disintegration could occur would be the member states' loss of sovereignty. With the EU controlling so many of the laws regarding the Union, the member states have shared competence leading to loss of control over their own laws. This loss of control can lead to a inclination by the citizens of the states to vote against the Union and therefore for that state to leave.

The second reason may be that several of the member states have opted out of certain clauses in the treaties etc. such as the UK opting out of the Single European Currency (Euro). These opt-outs have lead other states, forced into adopting these clauses as they joined later, to feel that they are being made to sign up to things while some of the older member states are not. Because of this there is a growing tension between states and this tension could lead to a fall out.

The lack of control from the smaller states in the Union is also a point of contention. This is because most of the decision making within the EU is made using proportionate representation where there are weighted votes. This means that the bigger the states the more voting power they have. With this disparity in voting powers the smaller member states may feel that their opinions and wishes are being overruled by the larger ones and therefore may wish to join forces and exit the union.

One of the major problems which has always existed for the EU is that it is comparable to a federalist state. It has been argued that Brussels acts as the central government and the member states act as the smaller sub-governments as it is in Brussels that the laws for the whole of the Union are formed.

The final argument in favour of disintegration is that many of the newly appointed members into the Union are former communist states. The purpose of the EU was to provide an umbrella of democracy under which the members of the EU would adhere to. However, the is the problem that small factions of communist ideology may still exist in some areas and political and social ideals may vary. This could lead to more serious support for communist ideology and an eventual split from the body of the Union.

Arguments Against The Possibility of Disintegration

The European Union is limited to 27 states as per the Treaty of Nice which means its possibility of expansion to a size which is no longer viable will not be an issue. However, if the Lisbon Treaty is ratified the number of potential members will be increased and therefore the possibility of further enlargement will be increased.

The purpose of the Community was to provide a stable and constant market in which to trade and to lessen the chances of war. With this purpose it seems that a possible disintegration would be contrary to these functions and therefore unlikely to occur. When nation states choose not to unite under one union for the benefits it can provide, they are choosing to face the rest of the world alone (or possibly in smaller groups) and this diminishes the power that they hold on the world stage. Were countries such as the UK and France to leave the union they would face trade and security against the US and China alone. These huge international players are free to set tariffs and demand higher standards of goods (as organisations such as the World Trade Organisation allow), without the power of the EU to negotiate.

Conclusion

The possibility of the disintegration of the European Union is one which only time will prove. It may be that the Union’s expansion will be its downfall or that its growth will only strengthen the bonds between the member states and therefore tighten the Union.

External Links

1. http://www.jhubc.it/ecpr-riga/virtualpaperroom/100.pdf - The Enlargement Policy of the European Union now and in the Future  
2. http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/the-policy/index_en.htm - The European Commission’s page on enlargement
3. http://www.jhubc.it/ecpr-riga/virtualpaperroom/017.pdf - Fourth Pan-European Conference on EU Politics 25th – 27th September 2008, University of Latvia, Riga   
4. http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf - European Intigration 2020 Mapping the Global Future Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project Based on consultations with nongovernmental experts around the world.